Who: UConn Huskies vs. USF Bulls
What: American Athletic Conference football game
When: Saturday October, 15th at 7 PM
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Why: Conference championship implications
The Bulls of the University of South Florida host the University of Connecticut Huskies on Saturday at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium. The game marks just the 13th matchup between the former Big East members in a series that favors USF, 8-5. The Bulls have won the last four games, while the Huskies had won the previous three. Most games in the series have been close affairs, with an average score of 22-14, or just a touchdown difference between the two. Seven of the games had final scores differing by six points or less. The last game, played in Storrs, was a 28-20 victory for the Bulls.
The Huskies come into the game with a 3-3 (2-1) record, with two of those losses coming against #12/13 Houston a #25/28 Navy. Their best win was a 20-9 victory over Cincinnati, in their last game. Syracuse, the other opponent the two teams have in common so far this season, beat the Huskies 31-24. The Orange were at team easily dispatched by the Bulls, 45-20.
USF has had their best start since in years, going 5-1 for the first time since 2009. Their 2-0 start to conference play is the best they’ve done since 2013. The one loss was an embarrassing 55-35 beating at the hands of FSU. In their last game, the Bulls struggled to put away ECU. Despite winning 38-22, USF only led by two points early in the fourth quarter.
USF Offense
The Bulls are currently ranked 8th best scoring offense, nationally, with an average of over 44 points per game. That high scoring offense is powered by the 12th highest producing running game in the country. USF is averaging over 260 rushing yards per game and only two teams, Michigan and Louisville, have more than the Bulls’ 21 rushing touchdowns.
It’s the quarterback, Quinton Flowers, who leads the team in rushing with 498 yards and four scores. Running back, Marlon Mack, is a close second with 485 yards and eight touchdowns. Mack has missed some game time due to injury, this season, and has still been able to break several school records. He is currently 32nd in the nation in rushing yards per game and tied for ninth for rushing touchdowns. Flowers’ 83 yards per game is good for 57th nationally. Flowers and Mack are third and fourth in the conference in total rushing yards, respectively.
As a passer, Flowers has 1,322 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Four of those touchdowns were caught by Rodney Adams, Flowers’ favorite target. Running back, D’Ernest Johnson, is tied on for second number of catches on team, turning four of them into touchdowns. Adams is ninth in the conference in total receiving yards. He and Johnson are tied for second with three other AAC players for most receiving touchdowns this season.
UConn Defense
The task of stopping that high scoring Bulls offense goes to the 44th ranked scoring defense of the Huskies. They are allowing just over 23 points per game. Defensive back, Obi Melifonwu, leads the team with 50 tackles and one interception. UConn has been able to get some pressure up front, with defensive lineman, Cole Ormby logging four of the team’s ten total sacks. Their passing defense is currently ranked 123rd in the nation, but they do have success against the run. The Huskies are holding their opponents to just under 99 yards rushing per game, 11th best nationally.
UConn Offense
The UConn offense has been struggling this season. Averaging just under 19 points per game, they’re the 117th worst scoring offense in the FBS. They’re 71st in passing offense with 226 yards per game and 107th in rushing yards per game with 135. The numbers demonstrate a lean towards the passing game, which is led by quarterback, Bryant Shirreffs.
Shirreffs has passed for nearly 1300 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions. Receiver, Noel Thomas, has caught the bulk of those passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns. The Huskies only have five receiving touchdowns this year.
Arkeel Newsome leads the ground game with 56 yards per game and a pair of touchdowns on the season. The second leading rusher on the team is Shirreffs, who has 251 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns of his own. Shirreffs is not considered to be a dual-threat quarterback. His ranking second on the team to a running back with less than 60 yards per game speaks poorly for the UConn running game.
USF Defense
The USF defense has had some uncertain moments this year. To begin with, they gave up 55 points to the Seminoles earlier this season. And, they’ve recently allowed ECU, a team with offensive challenges of their own, to stick around a lot later than they should have last week.
Putting the moments of uncertainty aside, they rank 56th in scoring defense, allowing nearly 26 points per game, a number skewed by what the Seminoles scored. If treated as a statistical outlier and removed, the Bulls are holding their opponents to less than 20 points per game.
They are vulnerable on the ground, allowing nearly 210 rushing yards per game. That number includes the 478 rushing yards given up to FSU in that bad loss. If that number is normalized with the outlier removed, they improve to just 156 yards per game allowed. Their passing defense is ranked 76th, allowing 236 yards per game.
Linebacker, Auggie Sanchez, leads the team with 54 tackles and is tied for 25th nationally for most tackles on the season. Sanchez also has three of the Bulls’ 14 sacks, with defensive lineman, Bruce Hector, a close second with 2.5. Eight other Bulls have at least one sack. Linebacker, Nigel Harris, leads the team with two interceptions. He’s also second in tackles with 38.
Expectations
USF has a high powered offense, averaging over 44 points in their last nine games. The UConn defense, while strong against the run, will simply be unable to stop that offense. They will need to find a way to stop both Flowers and Mack to contain the run. That will force USF to pass against the 123rd rated passing defense in the country. It could be a career day for Flowers and Adams. Defensively, USF does have some soft spots. While they’re average in points allowed per game, they’ve give up huge chunks of yardage that could easily have been points in past games. It just doesn’t seem likely that UConn’s offense is the one to take advantage of that.
USF comes into the game as much as 20 point favorites for this home game. With a kickoff of 7 PM, the weather will be comfortable enough for a good home crowd. For those who will not be in Tampa, the game can be viewed on CBS Sports Network.
