If it looks like you just saw one of these poll watch stories, it’s because you have. The two major national polls were delayed in coming out due to Hurricane Matthew. And, due to delays in adding several new rankings to the segment, last week’s posting was also behind. Fortunately, not much has changed in the short time between these two postings.
This week’s watch begins with the AP Poll, where USF has struggled to gain attention. The AP Poll is the media poll, described in depth in Week 4.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Clemson 4 Michigan 5 Washington 6 Texas A&M 7 Louisville 8 Wisconsin 9 Tennessee 10 Nebraska 11 Baylor 12 Ole Miss 13 Houston 14 Florida State 15 Boise State 16 Miami (FL) 17 Virginia Tech 18 Florida 19 Oklahoma 20 West Virginia 21 Utah |
22 Arkansas 23 Auburn 24 Western Michigan 25 Navy 26 Georgia 27 Arizona State 28 North Carolina 29 LSU 30 Oklahoma State 31 North Dakota State 32 Stanford 33 Colorado 34 South Florida 35 TCU 36 North Carolina State 36 Washington State 38 Iowa 39 San Diego State 39 Air Force 41 Wake Forest |
They are getting 20 vote points, this week, up from just six last week. That’s enough to move them from 38th to 34th, the closest they have come to the top 25 in this poll, this season. Also noteworthy, conference rival, Navy, has joined the top 25.
The Coaches’ poll, which was explained previously, has been better for the Bulls than the AP Poll.
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1 Alabama 2 Ohio State 3 Clemson 4 Michigan 5 Washington 6 Texas A&M 7 Louisville 8 Baylor 9 Nebraska 10 Wisconsin 11 Tennessee 12 Houston 13 Ole Miss 14 Florida 15 Boise State 16 Florida State 17 Miami (FL) 18 West Virginia 19 Virginia Tech 20 Oklahoma 21 Utah 22 Arkansas 23 Western Michigan 24 Arizona State |
25 LSU 26 Auburn 27 Georgia 28 Navy 29 South Florida 30 North Carolina 31 North Carolina State 32 Oklahoma State 33 USC 34 Stanford 35 Washington State 36 Colorado 37 Memphis 37 Troy 37 Wake Forest 40 TCU 41 Appalachian State 41 Penn State 41 Pittsburgh 44 San Diego State 45 Middle Tennessee 45 Tulsa 45 South Alabama |
USF ranks an unofficial 29th in this week’s Coaches’ poll, up from 35th last week. The move up is thanks to a huge jump in voter points from 24 to 53. The increase in points is important, but just as important are the teams that are keeping them out. #25 LSU has 81 points with a 3-2 record. Auburn, the first team out, has 70 points, Georgia has 63, and American Athletic Conference leader Navy has 58.
The CBS 128 leads the list of other rankings being monitored. The methodology of this ranking was explained on a previous posting.
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1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) 3 Clemson Tigers (6-0) 4 Washington Huskies (6-0) 5 Michigan Wolverines (6-0) 6 Louisville Cardinals (4-1) 7 Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-0) 9 Wisconsin Badgers (4-1) 10 Houston Cougars (5-1) 11 Baylor Bears (5-0) 12 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) 13 Boise State Broncos (5-0) 14 Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (4-1) 15 Ole Miss Rebels (3-2) 16 Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) 17 Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) 18 Florida State Seminoles (4-2) 19 Western Michigan Broncos (6-0) 20 West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) 21 Florida Gators (4-1) 22 Utah Utes (5-1) 23 Auburn Tigers (4-2) 24 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2) 25 South Florida Bulls (5-1) 26 North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2) 27 Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) 28 LSU Tigers (3-2) 29 Colorado Buffaloes (4-2) 30 Air Force Falcons (4-1) 31 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-2) 32 Navy Midshipmen (4-1) 33 Southern California Trojans (3-3) 34 Stanford Cardinal (3-2) 35 Washington State Cougars (3-2) 36 San Diego State Aztecs (4-1) 37 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2) 38 Georgia Bulldogs (4-2) 39 TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) 40 UCLA Bruins (3-3) 41 Troy Trojans (4-1) 42 Pittsburgh Panthers (4-2) 43 Toledo Rockets (4-1) 44 Memphis Tigers (4-1) 45 North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-1) 46 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) 47 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-1) 48 Indiana Hoosiers (3-2) 49 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-1) 50 Maryland Terrapins (4-1) 51 Brigham Young Cougars (3-3) 52 Appalachian State Mountaineers(3-2) 53 Kansas State Wildcats (3-2) 54 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-1) 55 Akron Zips (4-2) 56 Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2) 57 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-3) 58 Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2) 59 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 60 Michigan State Spartans (2-3) 61 California Golden Bears (3-3) 63 Texas Longhorns (2-3) 64 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-3) |
65 Ohio Bobcats (4-2) 66 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-4) 67 Georgia Southern Eagles (3-2) 68 Army Black Knights (3-2) 69 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-3) 70 Temple Owls (3-3) 71 Old Dominion Monarchs (4-2) 72 South Alabama Jaguars (3-2) 73 Northwestern Wildcats (2-3) 74 Colorado State Rams (3-3) 75 Cincinnati Bearcats (3-3) 76 UCF Knights (3-2) 77 Boston College Eagles (3-3) 78 Ball State Cardinals (3-3) 79 Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-3) 80 Wyoming Cowboys (4-2) 81 Missouri Tigers (2-3) 82 Connecticut Huskies (3-3) 83 Tulane Green Wave (3-2) 84 Duke Blue Devils (3-3) 85 Arizona Wildcats (2-4) 86 Utah State Aggies (2-4) 87 Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) 88 Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-2) 89 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (2-3) 90 Virginia Cavaliers (2-3) 91 Nevada Wolf Pack (3-3) 92 South Carolina Gamecocks (2-4) 93 Purdue Boilermakers (3-2) 94 Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4) 95 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-3) 96 Georgia State Panthers (1-4) 97 Oregon Ducks (2-4) 98 La.-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (2-3) 99 East Carolina Pirates (2-4) 100 North Texas Mean Green (3-3) 101 Oregon State Beavers (2-3) 102 Syracuse Orange (2-4) 103 UNLV Rebels (2-4) 104 Idaho Vandals (3-3) 105 New Mexico Lobos (2-3) 106 Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4) 107 Northern Illinois Huskies (1-5) 108 Southern Methodist Mustangs (2-4) 109 New Mexico State Aggies (2-3) 110 Florida International Golden Panthers (2-4) 111 Iowa State Cyclones (1-5) 112 Illinois Fighting Illini (1-4) 113 Texas State Bobcats (2-3) 114 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-4) 115 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-4) 116 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-4) 117 Massachusetts Minutemen (1-5) 118 Marshall Thundering Herd (1-4) 119 Bowling Green Falcons (1-5) 120 Fresno State Bulldogs (1-5) 121 Texas-El Paso Miners (1-5) 122 Kansas Jayhawks (1-4) 123 Charlotte 49ers (2-4) 124 Florida Atlantic Owls (1-5) 125 Rice Owls (0-5) 126 San Jose State Spartans (1-5) 127 Buffalo Bulls (1-4) 128 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (0-6) |
In every week of the CBS ranking, the Bulls have been in the top 30. They had been as high as 22nd, but dropped to 30th after the FSU game. Currently, they’re sitting at 25, one spot up from last week. They are the only other American Athletic Conference school in the top 25 of this ranking.
Next up is the ESPN Football Power Index. Explained previously, the FPI is the only ranking listed here that uses computer simulations to determine how good teams are.
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1 Michigan, Big Ten 2 Alabama, SEC 3 Louisville, ACC 4 Clemson, ACC 5 OSU, Big Ten 6 Washington, Pac-12 7 Texas A&M, SEC 8 FSU, ACC 9 LSU, SEC 10 Ole Miss, SEC 11 Auburn, SEC 12 Tennessee, SEC 13 Oklahoma, Big 12 14 Miami, ACC 15 Wisconsin, Big Ten 16 Houston, American 17 Florida, SEC 18 Boise State, MW 19 UCLA, Pac-12 20 Baylor, Big 12 21 Oklahoma State, Big 12 22 Washington St, Pac-12 23 Colorado, Pac-12 24 USC, Pac-12 25 Nebraska, Big Ten 26 UNC, ACC 27 USF, American 28 VT, ACC 29 W Michigan, MAC 30 West Virginia, Big 12 31 Stanford, Pac-12 32 TCU, Big 12 33 Pitt, ACC 34 BYU, FBS Indep. 35 Texas Tech, Big 12 36 Georgia, SEC 37 Penn State, Big Ten 38 Kansas State, Big 12 39 Texas, Big 12 40 Arkansas, SEC 41 Utah, Pac-12 42 Iowa, Big Ten 43 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 44 Memphis, American 45 Missouri, SEC 46 NC State, ACC 47 Arizona State, Pac-12 48 Cal, Pac-12 49 Toledo, MAC 50 Georgia Tech, ACC 51 Miss St, SEC 52 Oregon, Pac-12 53 Arizona, Pac-12 54 Maryland, Big Ten 55 Northwestern, Big Ten 56 Wake Forest, ACC 57 Troy, Sun Belt 58 Michigan State, Big Ten 59 San Diego State, MW 60 Temple, American 61 Appalachian St, Sun Belt 62 Minnesota, Big Ten 63 Vanderbilt, SEC 64 Navy, American |
65 South Carolina, SEC 66 Indiana, Big Ten 67 W Kentucky, C-USA 68 UCF, American 69 Duke, ACC 70 Air Force, MW 71 Tulsa, American 72 Cent Michigan, MAC 73 LA Tech, C-USA 74 Kentucky, SEC 75 UVA, ACC 76 Army, FBS Indep. 77 Boston College, ACC 78 Iowa State, Big 12 79 Mid Tennessee, C-USA 80 Syracuse, ACC 81 Cincinnati, American 82 Southern Miss, C-USA 83 Illinois, Big Ten 84 Utah State, MW 85 Ga Southern, Sun Belt 86 Oregon State, Pac-12 87 UConn, American 88 ECU, American 89 Purdue, Big Ten 90 Wyoming, MW 91 N Illinois, MAC 92 Ball State, MAC 93 Old Dominion, C-USA 94 Akron, MAC 95 Ohio, MAC 96 Marshall, C-USA 97 SMU, American 98 New Mexico, MW 99 Tulane, American 100 UNLV, MW 101 Rutgers, Big Ten 102 Arkansas State, Sun Belt 103 Nevada, MW 104 Colorado State, MW 105 Kent State, MAC 106 Kansas, Big 12 107 Hawai'i, MW 108 Georgia State, Sun Belt 109 San Jose State, MW 110 South Alabama, Sun Belt 111 UTSA, C-USA 112 E Michigan, MAC 113 LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt 114 Miami (OH), MAC 115 Fresno State, MW 116 Idaho, Sun Belt 117 North Texas, C-USA 118 UMass, FBS Indep. 119 FAU, C-USA 120 Rice, C-USA 121 UL Monroe, Sun Belt 122 FIU, C-USA 123 New Mexico St, Sun Belt 124 Bowling Green, MAC 125 Texas State, Sun Belt 126 Buffalo, MAC 127 Charlotte, C-USA 128 UTEP, C-USA |
USF currently makes it to 27th in the ESPN Football Power Index. That’s four spots behind their high of 23 in Week 3 of this ranking system. The win over ECU did not change much for the Bulls, who are only one spot higher than they were last week.
Thus far, a poll of coaches, two polls of media writers, and a massive set of computer simulations have been covered to evaluate what the world thinks of USF football. Now, it’s time to follow the money, or at least the computer analysis that the money people follow. For this exercise, it’s the Oddsshark Power Rankings.
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1 Ohio State 2 Alabama 3 Michigan 4 Washington 5 Louisville 6 Houston 7 San Diego State 8 Western Michigan 9 WKU 10 Southern Miss 11 Oklahoma 12 Auburn 13 Clemson 14 Ole Miss 15 Toledo 16 USF 17 Troy 18 Boise State 19 Memphis 20 Tennessee 21 Wisconsin 22 Washington State 23 North Carolina 24 Air Force 25 TCU 26 LA Tech 27 California 28 Arkansas 29 Virginia Tech 30 Nebraska 31 Stanford 32 Navy 33 UCLA 34 Mississippi State 35 Middle Tennessee 36 Baylor 37 West Virginia 38 BYU 39 Notre Dame 40 LSU 41 Georgia Southern 42 Iowa 43 Temple 44 Michigan State 45 Appalachian State 46 Oregon 47 Texas A&M 48 Florida 49 Florida State 50 Arkansas State 51 Colorado 52 Indiana 53 Texas 54 Utah 55 Miami-FL 56 Georgia State 57 NC State 58 Marshall 59 Georgia 60 Akron 61 Ohio 62 Texas Tech 63 Central Michigan 64 Virginia |
65 Maryland 66 Kansas State 67 USC 68 Pittsburgh 69 East Carolina 70 Arizona State 71 Nevada 72 Northwestern 73 Oklahoma State 74 Minnesota 75 Utah State 76 Cincinnati 77 Army 78 Tulsa 79 New Mexico 80 Penn State 81 South Carolina 82 Colorado State 83 Iowa State 84 Missouri 85 Arizona 86 Georgia Tech 87 Massachusetts 88 San Jose State 89 Old Dominion 90 Boston College 91 South Alabama 92 Duke 93 Kentucky 94 Bowling Green 95 UCONN 96 NIU 97 Miami-OH 98 New Mexico State 99 Illinois 100 Buffalo 101 Louisiana-Lafayette 102 Florida Atlantic 103 UNLV 104 Vanderbilt 105 Tulane 106 Wake Forest 107 Wyoming 108 UTSA 109 Fresno State 110 Syracuse 111 Purdue 112 Idaho 113 Ball State 114 Rutgers 115 Texas State 116 SMU 117 UTEP 118 Eastern Michigan 119 North Texas 120 Kent State 121 Louisiana-Monroe 122 Oregon State 123 UCF 124 Rice 125 FIU 126 Hawaii 127 Kansas 128 Charlotte |
This is an interesting ranking system in that it has favored USF much more than the others have. The human polls are subject to various human biases, and that gives value to the computer ranking systems. This one, however, has ranked USF as high as 13th two weeks in a row and has held them at 16th for the past two weeks. Their system uses a ten game rolling “season” to analyze a team in an attempt to remove the outliers that come when teams open their seasons against lower level competition. It also guarantees that conference play is considered in evaluating teams. Also noteworthy in this one is how close Memphis is to USF in the rankings. In most of these other rankings, the closest conference mate in rank is Houston, about nine or ten spots higher. In this one, the Tigers are just three spots lower.
The final ranking system in this article is the Fornelli 50. As has been described previously, Fornelli is a sports writer with CBS who has come up with his own method of statistical analysis for ranking college football teams.
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1 Ohio State 5-0 (Last week -- 1) 2 Michigan 6-0 (4) 3 Alabama 6-0 (2) 4 Washington 6-0 (3) 5 Louisville 4-1 (5) 6 Boise State 5-0 (7) 7 Nebraska 5-0 (9) 8 Clemson 6-0 (15) 9 Baylor 5-0 (11) 10 Texas A&M 6-0 (12) 11 Western Michigan 6-0 (13) 12 Miami 4-1 (6) 13 Houston 5-1 (8) 14 Florida 4-1 (16) 15 Virginia Tech 4-1 (26) 16 South Florida 5-1 (20) 17 Memphis 4-1 (21) 18 Wisconsin 4-1 (22) 19 Auburn 4-2 (28) 20 NC State 4-1 (29) 21 West Virginia 4-0 (23) 22 Tennessee 5-1 (14) 23 Troy 4-1 (25) 24 Toledo 4-1 (31) 25 Maryland 4-1 (10) |
26 Washington State 3-2 (NR) 27 Air Force 4-1 (17) 28 TCU 4-2 (37) 29 Colorado 4-2 (19) 30 Army 3-2 (18) 31 Iowa 4-2 (36) 32 San Diego State 4-1 (47) 33 Utah 5-1 (42) 34 Middle Tennessee 4-1 (35) 35 Wake Forest 5-1 (46) 36 Penn State 4-2 (NR) 37 Arizona State 5-1 (45) 38 Indiana 3-2 (24) 39 Ole Miss 3-2 (39) 40 Oklahoma 3-2 (NR) 41 Tulsa 4-1 (48) 42 Navy 4-1 (NR) 43 North Carolina 4-2 (30) 44 Ohio 4-2 (49) 45 Oklahoma State 4-2 (NR) 46 UCLA 3-3 (32) 47 LSU 3-2 (41) 48 Florida State 4-2 (NR) 49 Southern Miss 4-2 (27) 50 Akron 4-2 (NR) |
Fornelli won’t discuss his formula, but the rankings for USF have been all over the map, suggesting there is probably a lot of volatility in one or two of his statistics. In any case, USF is ranked 16th this week, up four spots from last week. They shot up from unranked in Week 2 to 11th in week three, and then to 9th in Week 4, before dropping to 28th after the FSU loss. Since entering the top 50 of this system, USF has averaged 17th. In addition to having USF ranked higher than most other systems, Houston is just three spots higher and Memphis is just one spot behind the Bulls. That three team grouping from 13th – 17th is the tightest AAC grouping in any of these ranking systems.